Future research of social risk in Iran based on the causal layer analysis approach

Social risks have always and in all periods of history played a fundamental role in human life, but in the contemporary era, the attitude of society's people towards social risks has undergone a huge transformation, and the role of these risks in the living areas of society members is undeniable, on this basis, creating a correct attitude about The future of social risks seems essential. The purpose of the current research is to study the future of social risk by taking a look at the 20-year horizon of Iranian society, the statistical population of this research consisted of 12 cultural experts and university professors, open interview tool was used to collect the findings. After conducting interviews with experts, through thematic analysis, main and sub-categories were extracted from the interviews and using the layered causal analysis method, the dimensions and components of the findings were identified in four levels of litany, social causes, discourse and worldview, and myth and metaphor. . The results of this research showed that in a 20-year horizon, social risks will intensify in various fields, and metaphors and myths such as "rubbing everything on the body", "making art", "gambler" and "going into the sea" They were recognized as the basic components of social risk.