Future Studies of the Islamic Revolution through the Analysis of the Socio-Cultural Developments of Contemporary Iran

The emergence of some dynamics inconsistent with the familiar and dominant values and practices in the socio-cultural environment of Iranian society has raised the question that despite these dynamics, how will the ideal future for the Islamic revolution be determined? It is assumed that these dynamics will be able to be internalized in case of activation of the broad capacities of Shia jurisprudence and cannot threaten the stability of the Islamic revolution. Relying on Parsons' theory of structural functionalism and identity politics, to understand these developments and using scenario planning method and Micmac software to identify key (strategic) variables, relying on library and documentary sources as well as interviews with experts, these findings have been obtained that Although these developments cannot cause political collapse as one of the possible scenarios, they can be effective in accelerating the formation of blind riots and transformation as a possible scenario for the future of the Islamic Revolution. Also, the findings show that the establishment of the desirable future of the Islamic Revolution, according to the developments in the cultural and social field of contemporary Iran, depends on the activation of the foundation-breaking capacities of Shia jurisprudence to provide a valid answer to these developments and their internalization on the one hand, and the efficiency of the Islamic Republic For solving the challenges of people's daily life by relying on internal capacities and reviving the unity of elites and political currents of the country on the other.