Factors associated with the number of months of delaying in multiple sclerosis diagnosis: Comparison of count regression models

It may take a long time to diagnose multiple sclerosis (MS) since the emergence of primary symptoms. This study aimed to use count regression models to compare their fit and to identify factors affecting delay in the diagnosis of MS.

Data were collected from the Nationwide MS Registry of Iran (NMSRI) for Mazandaran Province, Iran, using census sampling until April 2022. The four models of Poisson regression, negative binomial (NB) regression, zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression, and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression were used in this study.

In this study on 2894 patients, 74.0% were women, and 8.5% had a family history of MS. The mean ± standard deviation (SD) of the patients’ age was 34.96 ± 9.41 years, and the mean delay in diagnosis was 12.32 ± 33.26 months, with a median of 0 (Q1-Q3: 0-9). The NB regression model showed the best performance, and factors, including a history of hospitalization and the year of symptom onset, had significant effects on a delayed diagnosis. Besides, the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score was significantly different before and after 2017; it was also associated with sex, type of MS, and history of hospitalization.

The mean diagnostic delay and the mean age of MS diagnosis are critical in Mazandaran Province. Patients with MS develop the disease at an early age and are diagnosed with a long delay. The time of symptom onset is a significant factor in the diagnosis of MS, and in recent years, there have been improvements in the diagnostic process.