Pathology of Financial Misalignment of Iranian Pension System and its Modeling Based on Graph Model

Financial imbalances and imbalances between resources and expenditures in Iranian pension funds have made the need for fund reforms inevitable. Today, the share of government aid in public government expenditures to the two Civil Servants and Military pension funds has increased from about 11 percent in 2013 to about 19 percent in 2021, and this trend has been increasing in recent years. However, despite the perception of the crisis by various actors in the pension system, these reforms have not been implemented. In this regard, the present study seeks pathology and finds a solution to solve the crisis of the Iranian pension system during the years 2013-2021. Due to the existence of different actors and stakeholders, one of the non-quantitative methods of game theory models, called the graph model, was used to resolve conflicts. This model is a good tool for modeling and analyzing complex problems, expresses the most likely consequences of various problems in the world, and finally provides guidelines for its improvement. The modeling results of the retirement crisis show that the fourth mode of the model, ie the state of reform, is more likely to occur. Therefore, the current situation is not a stable situation for all players, and they are motivated to leave it. According to the results, limiting government support, changing the pension system, and carrying out structural and parametric reforms will improve the current situation.