Foresight-Based Development of an Efficient Strategy for Iran’s Hydropolitical Relations in the Arvand Rud River Basin

Border rivers serve as vital water sources for countries, playing a crucial role in establishing and maintaining security and stability, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions worldwide. The Arvand Rud River’s geopolitical position in Iran’s southwest has endowed it with a unique hydropolitical function in Iran-Iraq relations. This paper employs a descriptive-analytical approach and Micmac and Scenario Wizard software to explore future patterns of Iran’s hydropolitical relations in the Arvand Rud River basin and develop an appropriate strategy. The research results indicate that, among the eighteen potential scenarios associated with five strongly and likely compatible patterns, the scenarios depicting Iran’s future hydropolitical relations in the Arvand Rud River basin on the brink of crisis are the most probable. As such, the recommended model for Iran’s hydropolitical relations in this basin is a cooperative strategy.