Factors Affecting the Fragility of Metropolises using Structural Analysis Approach (Case Study: Tehran Metropolitan)

Like any other complex system, cities fragment when they are not properly managed. Thus, the fragility conditions should be understood to calculate the effective strategies in responses. This study aims to explain the factors of fragility in the metropolitan city of Tehran using structural approach. This field study seeks to identify the factors effective in the fragility of Tehran using a descriptive-analytical approach. In order to formulate the theoretical framework, the related literature was reviewed using the documentation method. Then, experimental data were extracted based on the environmental scanning technique. The population included 14 experts and specialists in the field of urban planning, who were selected based on purposive sampling. To this aim, 91 factors were extracted as primary indicators of urban fragility based on the theoretical literature. Then, 51 factors with a lower percentage of consensuses were eliminated and 40 ones remained based on experts’ opinions taken through a questionnaire. In the next step, the answers were analyzed and evaluated applying structural mutual effects analysis in MicMac software, resulting in determining the degree of direct and indirect influence of the factors on each other and on the fragility process of Tehran. According to the results, 20 factors play a significant role in the fragility of Tehran among 40 primary influencing ones. The above-mentioned factors are rapid growth of urbanization, concentrated poverty, widespread financial corruption, social and gender inequality, unemployment rate, political instability, epidemic diseases, informal settlements, urban violence, economic security, people's participation, lack of basic urban services, exposure to natural disasters, social security, income inequality, improper distribution of security-development capacities, sanctions, global economic shocks, real insecurity, and sudden price shocks.