Analysis and study of future atmospheric hazards in southeastern urban areas of Iran

Today climate changecauseincrease in concentrationof greenhouse gases has been causeincrease extreme events and atmospheric hazards.Goal of this research,analyze and review climate future is for atmospheric hazards inareain southeastern Iran. In this study, to simulate minimum and maximum temperature data used from model data CanESM2 under three scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) with SDSM statistical scrolling and to simulate rainfall data from the Hadcm3 model under scenarios (A1B, A2, B1) with statistical scrolling LARS-WG. For this purpose, after calibration, validation and data modeling at the selected station, the performance of the model from the viewpoint of the compliance of the base temperature data (1976-2005) and rainfall (1986-2015) with simulation values (2022-2041) evaluated at a significant level of confidence. To adapt base data to simulated data Used of the three criteria root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R2) and mean squared error (MSE). According to simulated data were examined four important atmospheric hazard drought,extreme precipitation,frostand heat waves. The results showed that most drought events will occur in the central province and in the areas of citieskhash, iranshahr and zahedan.The highest extreme precipitationis observedin the areas of cities Iranshahr and Saravanand the cities zahedan and khash will experience Very little extreme precipitation.