Analysis of the Behavioral Pattern of Groundwater Consumers in the Agricultural Sector: A Case Study of Varamin Plain Basin

In a situation where water supply constraints have increased due to population growth and economic development, as well as a lack of a suitable consumption pattern, ecological concerns in the socio-economic environment regarding the optimal allocation of water among consumers have become an important issue. Varamin plain basin is located in the southeast of Tehran and produced the majority of agricultural production in this area. Since, the agriculture is the main and the largest consumer of groundwater in this region, so the water crisis has been affected by the pattern of groundwater exploitation. In this paper, agricultural behavior of water consumption was analyzed in the framework of three perspectives: a competitive, a constancy of time preferences and a time inconsistency of preferences during the thirty-year period from the 1368-69 to 1397-98. In order to assess this hypothesis, the current state of groundwater consumption was compared to one of three scenarios presented. In the competitive approach of water consumption, neoclassical equilibrium condition of efficient market was employed. However, in the other two scenarios, the discrete dynamic optimization technique was used to extract the behavioral pattern of water consumption. The conclusion indicated that farmers dealing with groundwater as the main source of agricultural water supply had a non-optimal pattern of time inconsistency in their consumption from a psychological point of view. Therefore, changing the status quo and ensuring the effectiveness of the water policy require the modification of the behavioral pattern of water consumption in farming.