Investigating the economic impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions by governments during the outbreak of the Covid-19 virus: Comparison of developed and developing countries

Late in 2019, the corona virus outbreak caused complex economic issues and substantially impacted the global economy. Governments resorted to non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as social isolation and mandatory quarantines to combat the ever-increasing spread of this virus. These restrictions, which are referred to as a non-vaccine intervention, have been criticized by some economists, and this led to the formation of the topic of the government's actions against the spread of the virus. What effect has it had on the economy and especially macro–variables? In the economic cycle, the imposition of restrictions and quarantine and measures like these have caused a decrease in the supply of labor, a decrease in the activity of enterprises, their production and the gross domestic production. Considering the possibility of the economic costs of these interventions imposed on the economies of countries, the current research attempts to investigate the economic effects of non-pharmacological measures taken during the period of the COVID-19 spread in a number of developed and developing nations.

This study aims to examine the impact of non-pharmaceutical government interventions on the gross domestic production (GDP) of developing and developed nations during the period of 2020 to 2022. This is done with seasonal data, and, for each country, the panel generalized moments model (Panel GMM) is utilized. Therefore, the following model is estimated for each group of countries: where Gdp represents  at constant prices in 2015,  represents the degree of trade openness, represents the number of tourists,  represents the government stringency index, and  represents the number of new COVID cases.

The results of the panel GMM estimation indicate that the previous-period GDP had a positive and significant effect on the current-period GDP in both developed and developing countries. The degree of trade openness has a positive and significant effect on the GDP in both developed and developing countries, such that a one-percent increase in the trade openness raises the GDP by 0.026% in developed countries and by 0.634% in developing countries. The results from both categories of the studied countries indicate that the number of tourists entering the country had a positive and statistically significant effect on the GDP. In developed countries, a one-percent increase in the number of incoming tourists results in a 0.107% increase in the GDP, while, in developing countries, it results in a 0.03% increase in the GDP. The government austerity index, which is used to evaluate the economic costs of non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic, has had a negative and significant impact on the GDP of both developed and developing countries. This indicates that government austerity has a negative and significant effect on economic growth. It is that non-medicinal government interventions to control the epidemic have resulted in a decline in the gross domestic production of countries. The findings indicate that a one-percent increase in the government austerity index decreases the GDP by 0.03 percent in established nations and by 0.001 percent in developing ones. This difference in the estimated coefficient indicates that the austerity index had a greater negative impact on the GDP of developed nations. The variable coefficient for the number of newly infected individuals differs in developed and developing nations. In developed nations, this coefficient is negative and statistically significant. The number obtained for this coefficient in this group of countries indicates that, as predicted, a one-percent increase in the number of new cases of COVID-19 has resulted in a 0.001% decrease in the GDP, whereas, in developing countries, a one-percent increase in the number of new cases of the disease has resulted in a 0.009% increase in the GDP.

Conclusion and Policy Implications: 

Due to the rapid global spread of COVID-19, the government's role in controlling and overcoming this situation has been undeniable and indispensable. Therefore, it is recommended that governments stimulate aggregate demand and increase their expenditure (G) through various monetary and financial channels, such as lowering interest rates, providing packages and support facilities, and reducing taxes. Since effective vaccines were not yet discovered at the beginning of the spread of this virus and, therefore, it was necessary and natural for governments to adopt preventative austerity measures, it is suggested that, in such critical times, governments could be warned to increase information regarding the economic cost and negative effects of non-pharmaceutical measures on the country. The results of this research provide policymakers with the possibility of future epidemics of comparable or even greater magnitude than COVID-19. This index measures the economic costs incurred by the government during these times. It suggests that, by understanding and analyzing such costs in similar circumstances, organizations can modify their strategies or develop support mechanisms to reduce the cost and external effects of such actions.