An Analysis of the Effect of Different Types of Tax on Production and Inflation with an Emphasis on Value-Added Tax and Income Tax

The purpose of the present study is to recognize and analyze short-term and long-term effects of income tax and value-added tax on these 2 macroeconomic criteria from 1991 to 2021. Considering the result of the unit root test and the stationarity of the variables at the level and with an interval, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method was used to estimate the coefficients. The results show that both models (dependent variable of the first model: inflation, dependent variable of the second model: gross domestic product) have long-term relation. In the first model, the results indicate that taxes have inflationary effects in the long term. On the other hand, contrary to the expectation of some experts, imposing taxes would improve GDP in the long term. Moreover, the value of ECT (-1) for both models is as expected and equal to -0.775 and-0.901 which means returning to long-term balance in less than 2 periods after the shock. It is suggested that by studying other macroeconomic variables, more attention will be paid to their evaluation and effectiveness on the variables of macroeconomics.