Scenario writing of the physical-spatial expansion of the city with emphasis on the business function under study: Shahr Mahabad

The purpose of the present research is to investigate the spatial expansion and develop scenarios related to the future development of the city of Mahabad, considering the role of commercial activities in the physical field. This research is considered to be applied from the point of view of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of nature and method. The method of data collection is document-survey and Micmac and Scenario Vizard software were used in data analysis. The results obtained from the entropy calculation show that the physical growth of the city was scattered and non-dense. Also, the result of Heldren's model shows that 48% of city growth is due to population and 52% of city growth is related to horizontal growth and dispersion. In the research process, the most important primary and driving factors related to the future spatial expansion of Mahabad city were identified with an emphasis on the commercial activities of the city, and then according to the importance of drivers and their uncertainty in three cases, 1- (combined use and growth) smart city); 2- Spatial expansion of the city with the same current trend (linear shape) and 3- (Spatial expansion of the city in the form of scattered development in all directions of the city) scenarios were compiled for the city of Mahabad. And in the second step, mixed use and smart urban growth were introduced as the most suitable scenario of Mahabad city, which requires the formulation of strategies, policies and operational plans in line with urban sustainability.