Evaluation and Simulation of the Water Footprint of the Saffron Crop in Birjand Plain Using the Scenarios of the 6th Climate Change Report

Investigating and identifying the actual amount of water used for different agricultural products is of particular importance, and considering such evaluations, appropriate solutions can be provided to reduce agricultural water consumption, which is of great importance. The water footprint index as a global index shows the actual amount of water consumed by products based on the conditions and climate of each region. On the other hand, the phenomenon of climate change is one of the most important environmental challenges that has a significant impact on water resources. Therefore, it is important and necessary to evaluate this phenomenon in order to predict its impact on water consumption in the agricultural sector. In this research, the simulation of climate parameters using the MIROCES2L model of the 6th Report of the General Oceanic Atmospheric Circulation under three scenarios SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 in Birjand plain has been done and then using those results to calculate the footprint prediction The blue water and green water traces of the strategic product of saffron were carried out in the Birjand Plain region. The results of the first part showed that the minimum temperature and maximum temperature in all three scenarios in the future (2050-2022) generally increased and the precipitation parameter increased in autumn and winter and decreased in spring and summer. In the second part, the prediction of saffron crop performance by NIO model showed that under three scenarios SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 in the future (2022-2038) on average 0.13, 0.21 respectively and 0.05 kg/ha has decreased compared to the observation period (2005-2021) and the results showed that with the increase in water demand in the future period, the water footprint, the green water footprint and the total water footprint of the saffron crop under the influence of climate change In the future period, it has increased by almost 2 times compared to the observation period. Also, the ratio of blue water consumption to green water in this product has increased in the future under all three scenarios compared to the observation period from 1.91 to 2.04. Therefore, despite the phenomenon of climate change, increase in temperature, increase in water demand, and finally increase in the footprint of water consumption in surface and underground water sources in the Birjand plain in the coming years, it is necessary to implement a suitable model of water consumption in the plain and To use appropriate and effective solutions to reduce the water footprint in the study area, the methods of reducing the area under cultivation, less irrigation, changing the cultivation pattern and changing the agricultural calendar should also be proposed and implemented.