An Investigating and calculating the resilience of agricultural production with an emphasis on Iran's food security

Considering the continuous support provided to the agricultural sector by the state, an understanding of the level of economic resilience of Iranian agricultural sector is essential for evaluating the effectiveness of this support. An examination of the current state of the agricultural sector shows that despite investments in production and supports provided for achieving self-sufficiency, practical challenges such as external or internal shocks and climate change have diverted production from its intended path. The significance of this issue becomes even more apparent once we consider that where production lacks necessary long-term resilience, both food security, and consequently national security, are put at risk. Therefore, the aims of this study are to first provide a definition of both long-term and short-term production resilience, and thereafter, explicate a reliable measure for examining the level of economic resilience. To achieve this goal, various methods including the Hodrick-Prescott filter, econometric model estimation, and exploratory information analysis were employed. Graphical analysis and coefficient estimation results indicate that fodder corn, a crucial agricultural input in the meat production sector of the country, exhibits the highest resilience, whilst cotton, an input in oil production, shows the lowest long-term resilience for production. Furthermore, the results reveal that in the short term the top six products in terms of production resilience are: egg products, milk, chicken meat, fodder corn, alfalfa, and red meat. Additionally, when comparing different approaches to calculate short-term production resilience, the third approach proves to be more informative than the other two methods.