Variable Study and Structural-Exploratory Analysis of Zangezur Corridor Establishment on Iran’s Security: Developing the Most Locally Compatible Scenario

Potential establishment of the Zangezur corridor is among the most radical geopolitical changes in the Caucus region that imposes various effects on the regional countries. Among them, Iran, due to sever international sanctions, enjoys the least opportunity to reap the possible transit benefits of the corridor but finds his security adversely affected. Considering the gap on a comprehensive study in the literature and methodological and epistemic deficiencies of the previous studies, the current research is an attempt to employ regional security complex theory, use a mixed-methods approach in research (exploratory analysis, structural analysis and scenario writing), use expert panel and reliable software (SPSS, MicMac and Scenario wizard) for validating the finding to investigate these consequences. It was revealed that 18 variables with accepted factor loading under four components of Economic, Transit, Hegemonic/Geopolitics and Military affect Iran’s security due to the corridor. Also, structural interpretation showed that these system of effects involve critical, risk, target and output variables that have exclusive nature and behavior. Also, the scenario development revealed that “strengthening convergence with Armenia”, “financing common transit routes with Armenia”, “and preserving status quo in the border” and “removing sanctions and reviving trade competition” are the key critical variables in the most consistent scenario.