Future research of the key drivers affecting the instability of Iran's capital market

Capital market efficiency is considered as one of the foundations of stability and stability in any economic system, which can lead to higher investor confidence. But the existence of disturbances related to macroeconomic variables; The governance of the capital market and the political currents governing the market cause the instability of the capital market, which can have behavioral and macroeconomic consequences for any country. The purpose of this research is the feasibility of capital market future research is from the perspective of evaluating the drivers of instability under the presence of the emotional behavior of investors. The methodology of this study is mixed in terms of data collection and consists of a set of thematic analysis processes in the qualitative part and analyzes related to scenario development in the quantitative part. The participants in the qualitative part were 20 academic experts, while in the quantitative part 25 capital market brokers, who had the necessary experience and knowledge about the behavioral drivers of investors, participated. The results in the qualitative section during 20 interviews indicated the existence of 5 organizing themes and 40 basic themes, and all the themes used in the scenario development section were also confirmed by Delphi analysis. In the quantitative section, it was also determined that the most important scenario related to the drivers of capital market instability is the Senusi scenario or the explanatory phrase (simulation of the literary theme) of the rebellious horse which as the most important factor in the instability of the capital market, the emotional behavior of investors is further intensified under the influence of mass stimulus. The obtained results indicate the fact that one of the most important reasons for the instability of the capital market is the mass behavior of investors and shareholders, and the reason for this is the existence of currency fluctuations, which causes the attractiveness of investing in financial markets such as the stock exchange to be replaced by investing in monetary and foreign exchange markets to bring more returns in the shorter term for investors by avoiding fluctuations in the difference between Rial and international currencies.