Breast Cancer Risk Assessment in Jordanian Women Using Gail Model: A Cross-Sectional Study

the study aimed to apply and validate the modified Gail Model (GM) in a group of Jordanian women to identify their estimated 5-years and lifelong breast cancer risk.

This cross-sectional study was carried out in Jordan, wherein data were gathered from women who had no previous personal history of breast cancer during the period from January 2020 to June 2020. Sociodemographic characteristics and other breast cancer-related factors were gathered from the participants. Breast cancer risks were determined using the Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT) of the National Cancer Institute Online version (Gail Model version 2). Data were analyzed using the SPSS

A total of 502 women were involved in our study. The mean age was 47±8.8 years (range: 35-83). The majority of the women were married (93.6%). Twenty-seven women (5.2%) were nulliparous. Regarding menarche age, 243 women (47.3%) had their first cycle at the age of 12-13 years. One hundred women (19.9%) reported at least one family member with a breast cancer diagnosis while 23 women (4.6%) had a member with an ovarian cancer diagnosis. The calculated median for the 5-year BC risk was 0.8 (0.5 to 1.2), while the median for the lifetime risk was 9.2 (7.8 to 11.1). Thirty-eight women (7.6%) and 12 (2.4%) were categorized as having a high risk of developing BC in five years and a lifetime, respectively.

The utilization of Gail models can help healthcare providers identify a subset of women who are at an increased risk for breast cancer and personalize their approach in selecting the timing schedule and modality for breast cancer screening.