Future prospects for wind and solar power generation under High-resolution climate change scenarios

The impact of climate change on the availability and diversity of wind and solar resources for renewable electricity generation was evaluated under recent scenarios of joint social and economic pathways. To do this, the Climate Research and Prediction Model was used to perform very high-resolution (≈1 km2) climate simulations for one current scenario and two future scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Modeled meteorological variables were then used to calculate potential future changes in wind power and solar photovoltaic energy for electricity generation for each climate change scenario compared to the present. The results show a sharp increase in wind speed during winter of +45% and a decrease of +45% during summer, with future seasonal generation differences for wind power of ≈100 kWh for both scenarios. For solar radiation, the biggest difference is during winter (+30% to +45% increase) with solar photovoltaic production varying from +10 kWh to +20 kWh, depending on the scenario and the season. Seasonal changes in wind speed and solar radiation imply a seasonal loss that could threaten the stability of future renewable electricity generation in the region and make decarbonization efforts more difficult. This study highlights the importance of a holistic approach in the assessment of the electricity generation system, as the seasonal variations and intermittency of some renewable energy sources can potentially be covered by others.