Identifying Possible Futures of Urban Form Development with a Scenario Planning Approach (Case Study: Northwest District of Mashhad City)

Turbulence and unexpected events have significantly impacted cities, accelerating the process of urban growth and development. In this ever-changing urban landscape, utilization of scenario planning tools is crucial for urban planners. The northwest district of Mashhad is a key area within the master plan of the city. Notably, this area is characterized by rapid and extensive construction. The following research question guided this study: "What are the potential future scenarios for urban development in the northwest area of Mashhad?" The research was purposefully applied in terms of methodology and employed a descriptive and analytical approach. Both documentary and field methods were utilized for data collection, while the Delphi method and Smicprob Expert scenario planning were employed for data analysis. The results of scenario development indicated that the third scenario held the highest probability at 17%. According to this scenario, 4 events were continuous with only one event not occurring.