Asianization of the Persian Gulf: Political–Economic Factors Affecting the Asianist Approach of the GCC Countries

Introduction :

 Traditionally, the strategic and tactical communications of the member states of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)—both before and after gaining independence in the 1970s—have predominantly adhered to Western approaches and attitudes. Notably, there has been a significant shift in the foreign policy and economic perspectives of the member states. This shift is characterized by an increased focus on fostering economic–political interactions with the Asian super-region, particularly the East Asian subregion (e.g., Japan and China). This shift is evident in collaborative mega-projects such as the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s Arab Policy Paper, and increasing relations in different fields. The new policy reflects a discernible shift in discourse and a departure from purely Western perspectives, heralding a transition to emerging economic and political views within the Asian super-region, while maintaining relations with Western powers, such as the United States. The present study aimed to examine the political–economic factors accelerating the Asianization of the GCC members and steering them towards new Asian partners. The central question is: What political–economic factors have contributed to the Asianization of the Persian Gulf and the shift of focus of GCC members towards Asian partners? The article posits that the shift in the foreign policy of GCC members can be attributed to the influence of various factors associated with individual, societal, and governmental levels, as well as the factors relating to roles and the structure of the international system.

Theoretical Framework:

It seems that a multi-causal explanation of how the GCC countries engage with emerging Asian powers, as well as their gradual foreign policy shift from the Western block towards Eastern powers, necessitates an approach that takes into account both macro and micro perspectives. To conduct a multi-causal explanation of Asianism in foreign policy actions and behaviors of GCC states, the present research integrated macro-level analytical components, such as the influence of the international structure, and the micro-level factors such as the roles played by leaders, governments, and society. Given its inclusivity and theoretical breadth, the theoretical framework could offer more analytical possibilities to address almost every component and factor involved in Asianization of the Persian Gulf.

To address the research question and test the hypothesis, the study relied on the descriptive–analytical method and causal inference, adopting a multi-causal approach at both micro and macro levels.

The Asianization of the Persian Gulf region, influenced by various political–economic requisites, stands out as the most pivotal political and diplomatic shift experienced by the Arab countries in the region. The end of the Cold War in 1991 marked a transition from a bipolar to a multipolar international system. Amid the struggle of the Western bloc for supremacy during the Cold War, Asia embarked on a decisive path of growth and prominence in the 1960s and 1970s, diverging from the prevailing Western current. As an ancillary consequence in the international scene, regionalism has emerged in Asia, with a focus on East Asian actors. With the rise of the emerging pole of power in East Asia over recent decades, the Asian super-region is actively working to shape the new international order and extra-regional agendas, leveraging increased economic power and the ability to shape the discourse at the international level. The economic rise of China, alongside Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and India, which accounted for a third of the world’s gross domestic product in 2000, heralded the participation of the Asian super-region in the international order. These developments gave rise to Asianism as an alternative to the Western framework as well as a successful model of economic development at both regional and extra-regional levels—which could expand the influence and reach of Asian countries in shaping political agendas and the then new international order. Therefore, Asianization can be viewed as a transitional process that includes the divergence of governments at regional and international levels from the dominant Western current in political, economic, cultural, and military arenas, leading to the increased role and dominance of Asian alternatives over recent decades.The research findings highlight that beyond historical interactions in cultural, energy, commercial, and military areas, several factors have contributed to the Asianization of the GCC members. The factors include a generational shift among the GCC leaders, the necessity of fostering a productive economy to ensure the survival and legitimacy of the Persian Gulf states, and global developments in the international structure such as the acceleration of power shift from the West to the East, the remarkable rise of China, and the need for regional balance. In recent years, these factors have resulted in the stabilization and acceleration of the Asianization among the GCC member states. Notably, the contribution of the international structure is significantly more influential than other variables. The ongoing transition and structural changes within the international system have not only shaped the evolving attitudes of new GCC leaders towards economic functionalism and international cooperation but also imposed certain requirements at the reginal and international levels that could further propel the Asianization process. The latter include alliances and coalitions with Eastern powers while balancing against Iran. The variable of structural changes even becomes more significant when considering its constitutive role in shaping the future of Gulf–Asian relations.

Currently, the process of Asianization in the Persian Gulf is intertwined with the broader global trend of Asianization. Nevertheless, it appears that the GCC countries will continue to consider their relationships with the US and the West as crucial, particularly in military-cum-security domains where they largely rely on the US and Western partners. However, the increasing economic and political dependence on the East is influenced by evolving requirements, suggesting that international–regional connections will ultimately lay the foundation for the all-round dominance of Eastern powers, such as China, over the Western and security configuration of the Persian Gulf.