MODELING OF THE EFFECT OF FINANCIAL INCENTIVES ON THE PENETRATION OF RESIDENTIAL SOLAR POWER USING SYSTEM DYNAMICS: EVIDENCE FROM IRAN

Environmentally friendly countries, although often with high potential for solar power generation, have made insignicant progress in this area, mainly due to the ine ciency of prospecting policies, access to fossil fuels with low prices, and a lack of prioritization. Environmental issues and the immaturity of related technologies and infrastructures (given that Iran also has a high source of solar energy among these countries), make Iran perform poorly in its exploitation. Therefore, in order to achieve high capacity of solar systems in the residential sector, considering subsidies by the government along with protection tari policy can lead consumers to desire to use more of these systems and installed capacity. It can increase them signicantly and have a signicant eect on reducing carbon dioxide emissions. Increasing global energy demand, limited fossil fuel resources, and growing prices in recent decades, and some issues such as pollution and global warming, have led to the use of alternative energy sources, including solar energy. Least Environmentally Friendly Countries (LEFC) in contrast to their high potential for solar power generation, have made little progress, primarily due to ine ciencies in existing policies, access to low-cost fossil fuels, and environmental concerns and lack of prioritization. In this study, supportive and incentive policies for the dissemination of this technology in the intended countries were examined, and policies and measures that could be useful for Least Environmentally Friendly countries (LEFC) were evaluated and analyzed using this case study. In this regard, a system dynamics methodology was used to examine the eect of the proposed policies and actions using two subsystems of power consumption and the use of photovoltaic equipment in the residential sector through four scenarios. The results showed that although the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario is less government spending, the average cost of reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is high and the installed capacity is much lower than the combined scenarios of feed-in taris and capital subsidies. However, the hybrid scenario may reduce government costs and net electricity consumption compared to other scenarios, and the amount of accumulated capacity in addition to an increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reduction.