Analysis of the Geopolitical Drivers of Tehran Metropolis Tourism with a Future Studies Approach

A B S T R A C T
Urban tourism is one of the most dynamic and essential components of the current development of cities, which is effective in branding at (local, national, and international) levels. Therefore, the issue of the current research is, what are the drivers that are effective on the future state of tourism geopolitics of Tehran metropolis, and what is the relationship between these variables in terms of influence and effectiveness? This research method is quantitative-qualitative (mixed), and the future studies approach has been used in its analysis. The research findings show that in the first stage, 30 factors were identified with the Delphi method. What can be understood from the state of dispersion of variables affecting the geopolitical state of tourism in the Tehran metropolis is the system's unstable state; most of the variables are scattered around the diagonal axis of the plane. Therefore, four categories can be identified (influential, two-dimensional, influential, and independent factors). The results of the research showed that five variables have been identified as the most influential factors in the tourism geopolitics of the Tehran metropolis, including in terms of direct and indirect influence matrix; it can be said that the H1 index (private sector investments) is ranked first in direct and indirect influence. Index A5 (hotels, malls, and large commercial centers) is ranked second in terms of direct and indirect influence. Index H8 (holding festivals, exhibitions, conferences, and seminars) is ranked third in terms of direct and indirect influence. The C4 index (economic centrality) is ranked fourth in terms of direct and indirect influence. Index A4 (Urban Metro) is ranked fifth in terms of direct and indirect influence.
Extended Abstract
Today, in the 21st century, tourism has become one of the most critical functions of cities, and this function is so vital that it provides the basis for cities to obtain much economic capital and, in the next step, to establish themselves as an important city among other ones to propose. Also, this function has become important in such a way that it has provided the ground for the competition of cities to accept more tourists, which we can call the geopolitics of urban tourism which cities have become so essential and are seeking to increase their functions, especially the function of tourism as a global city to compete with other cities at (local, national, regional and global) levels. The current research employs a future studies approach to identify the geopolitical factors driving urban tourism in Tehran; this will help select key drivers for planning the future of tourism.
 
This article is a mixed type of research (quantitative-qualitative). Therefore, in order to answer the research question, its indicators have been extracted with the help of a multi-stage interview with eight experts and an elite panel and refined based on structural analysis.  Drawing the future is based on these indicators. Thus, the Delphi method has been used to screen these indicators. Structural analysis of this question has been done with the help of Mic Mac software to refine indicators and variables in the direction of forecasting, and the presented future is also exploratory in terms of typology. Finally, by identifying and extracting relevant components and selecting panel members based on expertise, the components that did not get the necessary points were removed from the questionnaire, and the final questionnaire was designed in the form of (number zero; no effect), (number one; low impact), (number two; medium impact), (number three; high impact), were provided to the respondents to rate each component.
 
As a place with the most natural and human tourist attractions, Tehran city spends the most urban expenses on building tourist places to attract tourists and earn more foreign currency. Thus, improving the quality of urban life in Tehran is affected by various factors that exist in Tehran. Therefore, in this context, the development of tourism in Tehran is considered as a source of changing economic, social and environmental characteristics, which has the potential to be effective in improving the quality of urban life. In any case, Tehran, following the example of European cities in building entertainment environments, has the first rank in the country, as these entertainment environments are available in all parts of Tehran. Many of these environments in Tehran are well known in the country, attracting many tourists from different cities. Nevertheless, it can be said that the entertainment industry (urban tourism) is one of the geopolitical components of Tehran metropolis, which provides the ground for the development of Tehran compared to other cities. The existing findings show that, due to the transition process, tourism in Tehran will become a geopolitical issue on a national and transnational scale, and it is necessary to identify the driving forces affecting its importance.
 
The present research was conducted to identify the drivers influencing the tourism geopolitics of Tehran metropolis. Scientific and logical tools are necessary in order to identify and determine the key effective drivers on the geopolitics of tourism in Tehran metropolis with a future studies approach like other approaches, based on the results obtained from the structural analysis in the Mic Mac software, 30 factors such as key variables were selected for the hydropolitical relations of the Zayandeh-Rood watershed. These drivers, in order of priority, include private sector investments H1, hotels, malls, and large commercial centers A5, holding festivals, exhibitions, conferences and seminars H8, economic centrality C4, urban subway A4, financial resources A3, large sports complexes and cultural centers A10, urban symbols (both Azadi and Milad Tower) A6, holding sports events H7, central and focal location C1, political-administrative centrality C3, information-media centrality A1, production and industrial centrality C2, historical monuments and museums C6, technology and technology centrality A2, creation of large recreational structures (including nature bridge, cable car, ski lift, and amusement parks) A9, style administrative issues in tourism sectors H4, security and social welfare H5, strengthening medical and health tourism H2, places of pilgrimage (including courts and imamzadehs) C7, service and relief infrastructure capacity A8, Universities and the development of university-related disciplines H3, access to freeways and urban passages A7, judicial centrality C5, artists (including actors, singers, and musicians) H6, favorable climate N1, forest parks and urban spaces greenery N3, natural landscapes (mountains and green meadows) N5, the extent and quality of space N2, plant and animal species N4 were obtained as the most influential variables in the future of tourism geopolitics of Tehran metropolis.
 
Funding
There is no funding support.
 
Authors’ Contribution
All of the authors approved the content of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work.
 
Conflict of Interest
Authors declared no conflict of interest.
 
Acknowledgments
We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.