Monitoring and modelling of forest changes in Gorgan area using Geomod

Each year, a wide range of forests change to the other uses such as agricultural and residential lands. Forests in northern Iran are no exception, and this decrease has been seen nearly everywhere. Therefore, the research was conducted with the aim of forest changes modeling in Gorgan area using Geomod model.

In the present study, forest changes occurred in Gorgan area was detected during 20 years. Then, forest change modeling was performed using Geomod. To do this, land use maps for the study time period were prepared using satellite imagery. Then, change detection process was performed by post-classification comparison technique. The Geomod was run to simulate forest changes in this area.

Forest change detection and its modelling showed the reduction of forest area in the region. Also, modeling results were validated using kappa indices which resulted in more than 0.99 and indicated model capability in the depicted forest changes in this area. Then, the future condition of forest areas were predicted using the model.

Results showed that forest areas have been decreased in this time period that development of residential areas and agricultural lands are the main reason for this. So, managerial and protectoral programs such as determining agricultural lands' boundaries, preventing their expansion, preventing rural expansion, and restricting accessible to forest areas were suggested.