Application of systems thinking approach in the extreme events analysis (Case study: Karoun Basin)

The growing global population and increasing demands have significantly intensified the pressure on natural resources and created inherent instability in watershed ecosystems and the complex ecological processes essential for habitat preservation, biodiversity conservation, erosion mitigation, soil formation, water retention, environmental stability, and cultural fulfillment have encountered disruptions. The inter-connected adaptability challenges within human-natural systems, intensified by climate change, bring more uncertainty that complicates the planning and management of ecosystem services in the watersheds. This uncertainty often results in flawed decision-making in water resources utilization and environmental management, contributing to instability and a shift toward critical thresholds in watersheds. This study adopts a systemic approach to analyze the Karoun Basin as a dynamic human-nature system, exploring five systemic analysis patterns and their impacts on water resource management paradigm.

The research progresses through three crucial steps. Firstly, the current status of the Karoun Basin is outlined based on extensive literature studies, characterizing the water system as a complex, adaptive entity. Secondly, leveraging a diverse range of research literature, five recognized structures in dynamic system analysis are explored. These structures offer a detailed understanding of the interconnectedness of human-nature systems, providing insights into the impact of human behavior on water resources management in the Karoun Basin. In the final step, using a systemic thinking approach, the study explores the occurrence of extreme events. This approach enhances the understanding of how extreme events interact with human activities, influencing the sustainability of the Karoun Basin.

The outcomes highlight the inherent risk of a linear approach to water resource management in the Karoun Basin, which is because of the lack of systemic thinking. This approach disrupts various relationships within the water system, leading to instability and worsening extreme events such as floods, droughts, and water disputes. The systemic investigation reveals recurrent behaviors that align with recognized structures in dynamic systems analysis, referred to as ancient patterns. Understanding and addressing these patterns are crucial for achieving sustainability and ensuring the continuous provision of ecosystem services.

Depending solely on short-term solutions, without considering long-term consequences in water resource management worsens water scarcity issues and intensifies social conflicts within watershed units. Solutions for Karoun Basin can be categorized into mitigating (hard) and adaptive (soft) scenarios. Mitigating measures address immediate needs, including advanced water storage and distribution infrastructure, while adaptive solutions incorporating policy measures are crucial for aligning the managed system with fluctuating water availability levels. A comprehensive resolution requires the simultaneous implementation of both strategies, recognizing the interconnected nature of human-nature systems and embracing sustainability principles.