New Z-Number-Based Method for Specialized Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment(Case studies: The Ardabil and Qorveh-Dehgolan plains)

Systems for assessing groundwater vulnerability are designed to protect groundwater resources from pollution. The DRASTIC method is a well-known approach for determining groundwater susceptibility. One drawback of the DRASTIC method is that it relies on expert judgment to rank parameters, which introduces uncertainty. This study used a new generation of Fuzzy Logic (FL), called the Z-number theory, to estimate the specific vulnerability of aquifers and address this uncertainty. The specific vulnerability of the Ardabil and Qorveh-Dehgolan aquifers was estimated using two scenarios: the DRASTIC parameters as inputs and nitrate concentration values as output. The vulnerability of the aquifer was also evaluated by comparing the results of the proposed models with those of the DRASTIC model, which served as a benchmark. The analysis showed that the Z-number Based Modeling (ZBM), which considered data reliability and weighted the rules appropriately, produced higher-quality results than the classic FL. In the Ardabil plain, the ZBM yielded results that were 53% better (using seven inputs) and 184% better (using four inputs) compared to the classic FL. In the Qorveh-Dehgolan Plain (QDP), the ZBM produced results that were 127% better (using seven inputs) and 311% better (using four inputs) than the classic FL. The irregularity and non-linearity of the data, such as the high coefficient of variation (CV) in the Ardabil plain compared to the QDP, may contribute to the high CV value in the plains. Therefore, in plains with high CV, the quality of the extracted Z-number-based rules may be lower.