Presenting the Model of Forecasting the Demand Level of Human Resources Needed by Tourism Industry Businesses with the System Dynamics Approach (Case Study: Bisotun Historical and Cultural Site)

The growth and development of the tourism industry as a profitable industry can be effective in the economic, social and cultural growth and development of any region. Kermanshah province receives thousands of domestic and foreign tourists every year due to its many natural and historical attractions. Therefore, the present study was conducted with the aim of predicting the level of demand for human resources required by businesses related to the tourism industry in the historical and cultural area of Bisotun by providing a dynamic model and creating a reference for future predictions.

Design/methodology/approach: 

For this purpose, after reviewing the research background and identifying the research variables, the most important of these specific factors and using the system dynamics approach, drawing a pattern of these factors and the relationships between them and using Vansim software in a period of 20 years (2011-2031) has been simulated. The data required for the study were collected through semi-structured in-depth interviews with experts, managers and faculty members in the field of tourism and human resources management who were selected purposefully. To validate the model and ensure the correctness of the simulated behavior, the comparison tests of the actual values and the predicted values of the variables, the future behavior prediction test and the sensitivity analysis test were used.

According to the research results, it is expected that the level of demand for tourism-related businesses will increase in the studied area. In addition, in the basic model based on the simulation, it was observed that the demand level of human resources, income, employment rate and the number of foreign tourists will increase over time.

Originality/value: 

The present research has presented a model for predicting the demand level of human resources required by businesses in the tourism industry in Bisotun area using the system dynamics approach.