Policy Analysis of Man-Made Fire Management in North Zagros Forests Using the System Dynamics Approach

The growing concern about climate change has increased awareness about the essential role of forest ecosystems. About 36% of forest lands in the world have affected by forest fires. Fire affects the functioning of the ecosystem and forests and causes soil erosion and changes in the carbon cycle over the climate, vegetation and lands. This study aims to identify and analyze the policies for the management of man-made fires in the Zagros forests, with a focus on the causes of man-made forest fires (intentional or accidental)

Using the system dynamics approach, the model of forest fire management was designed in Vensim DSS software, version 6.4E with the participation of natural resources policy makers from the Lorestan province in Iran and the fire data of North Zagros forests. The model was simulated over a 20-year horizon. Based on the Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis. forest fire management policies were investigated based on three main strategies: Prevention of fire incidents in the forests and pastures of North Zagros, command and management of fire incidents in the forests and pastures of North Zagros, and reconstruction of the forests and pastures of North Zagros after the fire incident. Finally, by applying the policies, each strategy was tested separately on the model and the results were compared.

Based on the results of the model simulation, the propose policies included: 
1. Providing forest protection equipment, 2. Matching the number of rangers with the density of forests, 3. Specialized training for rescue and protection forces, 4. Raising public awareness about the consequences of forest damage using local and national media, 5. Supporting NGOs and training local volunteers to protect forests and pastures, 6. Developing incident command systems, 7. Developing a decision-support system based on knowledge management of forest fires, 8. Developing an incident command system for inter-organizational coordination at the time of fire incidents and 9. Investigating and analyzing the root causes of each fire incident.

The proposed model is an application of the system dynamics approach for developing policies of man-made forest fire management, validated based on the fire data of the North Zagros forests in Lorestan province.