The effect of financial incentive policies on the pattern of water consumption and the pattern of crop cultivation (case study: Dehgolan plain in Kurdistan province)

Due to the limitation of surface water resources and excessive exploitation of underground water, the underground water table in many plains of Iran is in an unfavorable condition. One of these critical plains is the Dehgolan Plain, which is still facing a water shortage crisis despite its designation as a prohibited area. Therefore, in this research, the effect of tax and subsidy incentive policies for each added or saved cubic meter of water consumption on the changes in the cultivation pattern has been investigated in three scenarios of 10, 20, and 30 percent increase in the shadow price of water (714 Tomans) in 2023. The required data were collected by referring to Kurdistan Regional Water Company, Agricultural Jihad Organization, and the country's water demand system for seven major crops including Wheat, Barley, Forage corn, Potato, Cucumber, Alfalfa, and Rapeseed in Dehgolan plain. Then, the data were analyzed using the positive mathematical programming (PMP) model. The results showed that the application of tax and subsidy policies pushes the cropping pattern towards low-water-absorbing crops such as barley, wheat, and canola. It was also found that these policies reduce water consumption and gross farm yield. These findings show that the mentioned incentive policies can be an effective tool for managing water consumption in the agricultural sector. Of course, it is necessary to consider alternative solutions such as the use of new irrigation methods in addition to these policies to prevent negative effects on farmers' income.