Predicting the Magnitude of Possible Earthquakes in the Shahrood District of Khalkhal County, Ardabil, Iran, Using Artificial Neural Networks

Earthquakes are natural disasters that can cause high damage. Prediction of earthquakes is necessary to reduce damages, develop resistant infrastructure, and prevent the loss of life in human societies. This research aims to predict the magnitude of possible earthquakes in the Shahrood district of Khalkhal County using artificial neural networks (ANN). 

A multi-layer perceptron neural network was used to predict earthquake magnitude. 

The results showed that in the fault areas, especially the Kalur fault, earthquakes with a magnitude of 1-3 on the Richter scale are more likely to occur (70%). The likelihood of earthquakes with a magnitude of 4-6 on the Richter scale is moderate (26%) and the earthquakes with a magnitude of 7-10 on the Richter scale have a very low probability (4%).

In future studies, it is recommended to use machine learning models to better and more accurately predict earthquakes in the studied area.