Simulation of urban development using the combined method of multi-criteria evaluation and SLEUTH model in Nazarabad city

The purpose of this study is to investigate the physical growth characteristics of Nazarabad city in the past and predict its future changes until 2050 using the SLEUTH model. In this study, the urban map was extracted from the Landsat satellite images of 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020, and using the layers of slope, land use, excluded layer, urban extent, transportation network, and hill shade, it was entered into the SLEUTH model and urban growth was simulated in two historical and environmental scenarios. To provide a more favorable prediction of future land use changes in the SLEUTH model in the environmental scenario, the multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) method was used using twenty layers that have the greatest impact on land suitability for urban development. The layers used in the MCE process were related to topography, geology, weather and climate, water resources, biological, urban distances and land use. The results of the first scenario showed that from 2020 to 2050, 390 hectares will be added to the urban land and part of the gardens and agricultural land will be lost. The results of the second scenario showed that 205 hectares of valuable land could remain intact, thus preventing further fragmentation of the land use pattern in the future. The simulation results of the physical development of Nazarabad city showed that the combination of SLEUTH model with MCE can be a very useful tool for city managers to facilitate the evaluation of urban development patterns.