Investigation of the Long-Term Performance of Water Distribution Networks in Peak Consumption Conditions by Applying the Uncertainty of Model Parameters and Leakage Variation

In this article, the long-term hydraulic performance of water distribution networks in peak consumption conditions is investigated by applying the uncertainty of model parameters and leakage variation. Applying the uncertainty of the leakage parameter and defining network operation planning based on leakage variation are research innovations. For this purpose, first, the model parameters are estimated in deterministic conditions in the desired years. Then, their non-deterministic values are calculated using statistical distributions and Monte Carlo method and applied to the model. Finally, the network performance levels are determined probabilistically. The Nodal Pressure Reliability Index (NPRI) is used to calculate the hydraulic performance of the network by coding in MATLAB linked with the EPANET simulator. The proposed method has been applied to a sample and real network. The results showed that by implementing the operational planning, the network performance increased by 15.3% in the middle year of the operation period, compared to non-operational planning. In general, by applying operational planning, the network's life increases in peak consumption conditions in terms of hydraulic performance.