Forecasting the changes of some climatic variables of Jiroft Plain using LARS-WG micro-scale rotation and the output of HadCM3 model under different scenarios and simulating the cropping pattern

Climate change has had a significant impact on the global production of agricultural products. Studying the impact of climate change on the production of agricultural products is very important for making preventive decisions to improve agriculture. The aim of the current research is to simulate the cultivation pattern of Jiroft plain agricultural products under the influence of different climate scenarios. For this purpose, at the beginning, the effect of temperature and precipitation climatic variables on the yield of onion and potato crops in the period 1991-2022 was investigated using regression analysis. The reason for choosing these two crops is that they occupy a high area under cultivation and are cultivated in spring and autumn. Then, using HasGEM3 general circulation model, the climate variables of Jiroft plain under RCP 8/5, 4/5, 6/2 series scenarios available in the latest report of the International Panel on Climate Change (5th report) for the periods (2011-2045) , (2046-2065), (2066-2079) and (2080-2099) were predicted. In the end, by applying the positive mathematical programming approach, the cultivation pattern of the region was simulated and the effects of climate change on the cultivation pattern in the mentioned periods were investigated. The results showed that the climatic parameters of temperature and precipitation have a significant effect on the performance of selected products. Also, by applying the forecast of climate variability in the cultivation pattern model of all selected crops in the periods (2011-2045), (2046-2065), (2066-2079) and (2080-2099) based on The noses of the HasGEM3 model are affected by different climate scenarios. Considering the effects of climate change and improving the productivity of agricultural products, it is one of the bad effects of this phenomenon. The results of this research can be useful in agricultural planning and economic development of Jiroft city.