Development of a comprehensive model to predict stock prices in the stock market with an interpretive structural modeling approach

The aim of this study was to develop a comprehensive model for stock price forecasting in the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) using a mixed Delphi-fuzzy approach of Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM). The model incorporated technical, fundamental, macroeconomic, and emotional factors. In this study, the fuzzy Delphi method was employed to identify key criteria from the investor’s perspective among the 54 stock price prediction criteria extracted from the existing literature. Subsequently, the interpretive structural modeling method was utilized to examine the relationships between these criteria and establish a hierarchical model. The findings of the ISM revealed that the price per share and the money flow index held significant positions at the bottom of the hierarchy and exerted a strong driving force. Among the criteria occupying lower positions in the hierarchy, the exchange rate and the power indicator relative and exponential moving averages were identified as the most influential indicators.