Monitoring the evolution of the land use system and predicting the changes based on the integrated model of Markov chain and automatic cells (case study: Ilam city)

Land use changes and land surveying are one of the main topics of sustainable development. Land use change is an important example of human influence on the environment, which causes structural changes in social, economic and physical dimensions. In order to provide rational science for regional planning decisions and sustainable development, prediction models of land use patterns can be used. Therefore, land use map is one of the requirements of any national and regional development planning. the main purpose of this study is to monitor the evolution of the land use system and predict its changes using the Markov chain. Land use changes were evaluated using land use maps obtained in 2013, 2018, and 2023 using the change analysis tool (LCM) in TerrSet software. the changes in land use during the considered years show that man-made land use has changed from 9.81% in 2013 to 11.6% in 2018 and 12.73% in 2023, which indicates the growth and development of the city. On the other hand, the use of irrigated land has increased from 2.98% in 2013 to 1.03% in 2023, which can be attributed to urban development, drought and water shortage.