Demographic Dynamics and Population Projections in Iran: Analyzing Population Size and Age Structure up to 2040 Horizon

Understanding demographic characteristics, including the size and structure of a population, is foundational for strategic planning. This study aims to analyze historical shifts in Iran’s demographic composition and size, projecting these trends into the future.

Utilizing a secondary research approach, this study analyzed data from the 2016 General Population and Housing Census and annual vital events records from the Civil Registry Organization of Iran. Demographic methods were applied to assess past population changes and forecast future shifts. 

The findings reveal that Iran’s population growth has varied over time. Initially, the growth was modest, with a 2.1-fold increase from 1920 to 1940. The most significant surge occurred between 1970 and 1990. Under a scenario of rising fertility, the population is projected to reach 98 million by 2040. 

Iran’s population is aging, with an expected rise in the number and proportion of the elderly. To address the age composition of the population, it is necessary to increase the fertility rate through incentive policies and reduce the migration of young people. Regarding the size of the elderly population, there will be a need for special services such as social security, geriatric medicine, suitable recreation, appropriate housing, and overall, an elderly-friendly city. Key Message: The aging of Iran’s population is inevitable and accelerating. It is crucial to anticipate the future needs of the elderly and develop appropriate policies to address them effectively.