Identifying budget violations and deviations with key indicators and mathematical model in the Settlement Reports

The most important goals of the budget laws, five-year plans, are not realized in the implementation of annual budget laws. The purpose of this research is to present key indicators of budget performance and a mathematical model to identify corruption, violations, and budget deviations in monitoring, auditing, and budget disbursement reports, so that individual preferences in the process of preparing the aforementioned reports are reduced and the extent of responsibilities and the reasons for failure to achieve goals and omissions in the implementation of budget laws are presented in a transparent, quantitative, and verifiable manner. The statistical population is financial and budget experts and specialists who were selected based on the Cochran formula in a number of 384 people, and the research method is library and field, and the tool for collecting experts' opinions is a questionnaire. The data were prioritized using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Expert Choice (EC) software, and their importance, validity, and reliability coefficients were determined using the Partial Least Squares (PLS) method, and the results were sufficiently reliable. According to the AHP method, the priority of key indicators of budget performance in identifying budget violations and deviations includes the following indicators: budget mandates, budget macroeconomic variables, budget expenditures, and budget resources. According to the PLS method, the importance coefficients of independent variables on the dependent variable are, respectively, evaluation of effective management of financial resources and prevention of violations, the extent to which executive agencies fulfill their duties, determining legal requirements and accountability, and ranking financial and budget performance of managers.