The effects of industrialization intensity impulse in the short-term and long-term on the incomes caused by the import tariff in Iran, with the structural vector regression approach (SVAR)

The purpose of this research is to investigate the effects of the intensity of industrialization in the short and long term on the incomes caused by import tariffs in Iran, with the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) approach in the period of 1991-2020.For this purpose, a system of equations consisting of the share of the added value of industries with advanced and medium technology from the added value of the entire industry, the share of the added value of the country's industry in the gross domestic product, the average tariff rate, the exchange relationship, trade liberalization and the price index of imported goods has been defined.The results indicate that, in the short term, the greatest effect was caused by the price index of imported goods, and in the long term, the average tariff rate had the greatest impact on the incomes caused by the import tariff.The evidence in this research shows that the intensity of industrialization in Iran will increase the government's income due to the import tariff, and by increasing the price index of imported goods and the tariff rate, it will have adverse effects on it.Using the results of this research, the government can reduce the elasticity of import demand by providing expansionary financial policies and reducing the tariff rate, and by increasing imports, it can increase the government's income from import tariffs and increase the intensity of industrialization in Iran. which will increase industrial exports and foreign currency entry into the country.