The effect of the economic sanctions shock on the industrial competitiveness index with an emphasis on industrial exports and its share in the global index, the structural vector regression (SVAR) approach

The purpose of this research is the effect of the shock of economic sanctions on the industrial competitiveness index with an emphasis on industrial exports and its share in the global index with the approach of structural vector regression in the period of 1990-2020. The variables of economic sanctions include the price index of imported goods, the price index of export goods, exchange rate, crude oil production, crude oil export, foreign direct investment and the ratio of trade balance to gross domestic product. The results indicate that the increase in the price index of imported goods leads to a decrease in industrial exports and the global share index. The shock caused by the price index of export goods has had positive and negative fluctuations on industrial exports and a positive effect on the global share index. Also, the exchange relationship has a positive effect on industrial exports and on the global share index with positive and negative fluctuations. On the other hand, the shock caused by crude oil production had a positive effect on industrial exports and its share in the global index, while the shock effect of crude oil exports had a positive effect on industrial production and a negative effect on the global share index. Foreign direct investment has a neutral effect on industrial exports and a negative effect on the global share index.