Modeling and Analysis of Natural Gas Demand in Different Economic Sectors (An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach)

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Article Type:
Research/Original Article (دارای رتبه معتبر)
Abstract:

This study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to estimate the natural gas demand in six economic sectors, including household, agriculture, transportation, commercial, industrial, and power plants. The data used for this analysis spans during thr period of 2011 - 2022 and is derived from the national energy balance sheets.The modeling results indicate that the price elasticity of demand in the estimated functions is very low, meaning that the gas demand in these sectors is not highly responsive or sensitive to price changes. One reason for the low price elasticity is the regulated pricing of natural gas in these sectors. Additionally, the low price, assuming other conditions remain constant, reduces the sensitivity of consumers to price fluctuations.In most sectors, the elasticity of value-added and GDP surpasses other elasticities, highlighting that income has a more significant impact on natural gas demand. This effect is particularly pronounced in the industrial and power plant sectors. Therefore, the gas demand in these sectors is closely tied to the level of economic activity.

Language:
Persian
Published:
Quarterly Energy Economics Review, Volume:21 Issue: 84, 2025
Pages:
1 to 30
https://www.magiran.com/p2836752  
سامانه نویسندگان
  • Ali Akbar Naji Meidani
    Author (3)
    Associate Professor economics, Ferdowsi University, Mashhad, Iran
    Naji Meidani، Ali Akbar
  • Alireza Pooya
    Author (4)
    Full Professor Industrial Management, Ferdowsi University, Mashhad, Iran
    Pooya، Alireza
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