Evaluation of scenarios for recreating the historical fabric of Tabriz metropolis with a conservation-oriented approach

Urban regeneration has various approaches in the field of improving the biological quality of worn and historical textures, each of which is suitable for different textures with different conditions. The historical texture of the Tabriz metropolis, considering its historical background and valuable texture, requires attention and adoption of a conservation-oriented regeneration approach. In this regard, this research has examined and outlined the prospects and horizons ahead for the conservation-oriented regeneration of the historical texture of the Tabriz metropolis using a futures research approach and scenario writing method. The results of the research show that out of 49 indicators, 27 indicators were selected as critical drivers, and after implementing the scenario writing method, out of several possible situations, six scenarios can be drawn as the most likely situations and the future of conservation-oriented regeneration in this city. Among these scenarios, the third scenario was selected as the superior scenario with a total score of 31 and a desirability percentage of 25%. The overall status of the drivers in the combination of scenarios is not favorable, and based on the average score of the scenarios, the system is moving towards instability and crisis.