Determining the dynamics of land use changes in a long-term time span in Erzurum, Turkey

Land use change shapes landscapes and is crucial for effective natural resource management, requiring a deep understanding of its trends for informed land management. The study utilized Landsat TM and Sentinel-2 satellite images spanning 1994 to 2023 to generate a 30-year land use change map of Erzurum. After processing of satellite images in ENVI, the Maximum Likelihood Algorithm used for classification and the Kappa coefficient used for reliability of results. Single and dynamic land use change indices used to assss the changes in LULC classes. The results indicated appropriate accuracy in the classified maps with a Kappa coefficient exceeding 0.75. The results revealed that the most significant land use changes in the Erzurum region were related to the conversion of rangeland to agricultural land. Over the period from 1994 to 2023, there was a notable increase in agricultural land use in Erzurum, contrasting with negative trends in waterbodies and garden areas. Rangeland experienced the most significant decline, decreasing by 19.22%, while agricultural land increased by 18%. Indicating the highest growth among land use categories. According to the Single Dynamic Index, Bare Ground exhibited a change of +0.32%, while tree lands displayed a notably high dynamic degree of +0.31%. The significant expansion of agricultural land in Erzurum is primarily driven by agriculture being the main livelihood for local communities. This shift from rangelands highlights the strain on natural resources, necessitating careful management planning to balance agricultural expansion with environmental conservation concerns.