The Effect of Climate Change on Temperature and Precipitation in Two Different Climates Using CMIP6 Models and SSP Scenarios

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Article Type:
Research/Original Article (دارای رتبه معتبر)
Abstract:

The surface temperature of the Earth is rising, and due to climate change, this trend is expected to continue. This study investigates the effects of climate change on climatic variables using the MRI ESM2.0 climate prediction model in accordance with the sixth CMIP6 report in Lordegan and Borujen, employing temperature and precipitation data recorded at these two stations from 2000 to 2014. Subsequently, future atmospheric conditions were forecasted for two twenty-year periods: the near future (2020-2040) and the distant future (2040-2060), based on three designed emission scenarios—optimistic (SSP1-2-6), intermediate (SSP2-4-5), and pessimistic (SSP5-8-5). By comparing the parameters of the baseline period with the predicted future values, the Borujen and Lordegan stations are expected to see an increase in average minimum temperatures ranging from 1.3 degrees Celsius in the optimistic scenario during the near future to approximately 2.6 degrees Celsius in the pessimistic scenario in the distant future compared to the baseline period. For maximum temperatures, an increase between 1.2 and 3.1 degrees Celsius is observed across all selected scenarios. Specifically, the projected reduction in precipitation for Borujen is estimated to range from 7.5% to 11%, while for Lordegan, it is expected to vary from 12% to 14.7%. The results of this study can contribute to future water resource management, establish effective programs to address climate change, and prepare the ground for informed decision-making and appropriate planning

Language:
Persian
Published:
Irrigation & Water Engineering, Volume:16 Issue: 59, 2025
Pages:
212 to 228
https://www.magiran.com/p2848242  
سامانه نویسندگان
  • Rouhallah Fatahi Nafchi
    Author (3)
    Professor Department of water engineering, Agriculture College Shahrekord University, Shahrekord University, Shahr-e-Kord, Iran
    Fatahi Nafchi، Rouhallah
  • Reza Noroozvalashedi
    Author (4)
    Associate Professor Agriculture Meteorology, Water Engineering Department, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran
    Noroozvalashedi، Reza
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