Prediction of land use changes using multi-temporal images and CA-MARKOV model (Case study: Gorgan City)

In parallel with the ever-increasing urban population, the amount of construction in the city space has been developed. The development of construction in the horizontal space and regardless of the existing restrictions has led to environmental, economic and legal problems for the citizens. Achieving the amount, intensity and direction of development Construction from the past until now and forecasting the construction situation in the future is the first step towards the scientific and practical management of the physical development of urban construction, and planning and providing suitable solutions in order to create a balance between the spatial allocation of construction and all kinds of legal, economic and environmental considerations. The purpose of this research is to model and predict urban growth using satellite images and CA-Markov model.

In this research, firstly, using multi-time Landsat images related to the years 1976, 2001 and 2021, land use changes were investigated, and then the spatial expansion of Gorgan city in  (2021 AD) and  (2050 AD) was predicted using the CA-Markov model. Based on the results of this research, the changes in land use and the level of land use in the area have been calculated and compared.  The geographical area of ​​this research is the city of Gorgan.

The results of this research show that the largest increase in land use is related to urban land use (built land use), which increased from 6005.79 hectares in 2021 to 7141.66 hectares in 2050. Based on the results of this research, the growth of the city of Gorgan in the coming years will go towards the agricultural lands around the north, northwest and northeast.