Investigating the Effect of Macroeconomic Indicators on the Behavior Pattern of the Central Bank of Iran in Different Quantiles

Monetary policy is one of the most important economic tools that is carried out through changes in the volume of money, changes in the growth of the volume of money and interest rates, or the conditions for granting financial facilities. The goal of monetary policy in advanced industrial countries and developing countries is somewhat different. In industrial countries, the stated goal is mainly to eliminate inflation, eliminate recession, and achieve full employment, while for developing countries, the main goal of monetary policy is economic growth and increase government revenues and aggregate supply. Considering this issue, the aim of this study was to model the asymmetric behavior of the central bank in Iran during the period of 1360-1400 with the quantile regression approach. The findings of this study showed that the production gap, inflation gap has a negative and exchange rate had a positive and significant effect on the growth rate of the nominal money volume, and these effects were strengthened in the high quantiles of the growth rate of the nominal money volume. Also, based on other results of this study, the variables of inflation rate gap, production gap and exchange rate have an asymmetric behavior in Iran. The asymmetry of these effects means that with the increase in the monetary volume growth rate in Iran, the effects of the inflation rate gap, exchange rate and production gap on the monetary volume growth rate will also increase. In other words, with the growth of monetary volume, the impact of inflation rate gap, exchange rate and production gap on the growth rate of monetary volume will also increase.