Quality improvement of conflict analysis in worldwide gas industry using graph model scenarios and agent-based methodology

This study aims to explore and assess situations in international markets. In this context, the primary objective is to pinpoint the factors influencing the gas market and to analyze the internal dynamics of each of these factors. Subsequently, based on the factor-driven model of the recognized elements, the interplay and behaviors of these elements as parts of a factor-driven model are investigated.

This research employs the problem structuring approach, also known as soft operational research, specifically the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR) method. Additionally, in the quantitative part of this research, factor-based modeling is utilized. In this research, an attempt is first made to obtain a proper understanding of the reality of the gas market, and then a model is built based on this understanding. By identifying the key and leverage parts of the factor-based model and then simulating it for the long term, possible scenarios or states are extracted.

In the first step, key players in the gas market, including the United States, the European Union, Russia, China, India, Iran, Qatar, and the Renewable Energy Group, were identified, and the conflicts between them were modeled. The GMCR analysis resulted in the identification of 28 equilibrium points, which were subsequently clustered into five distinct scenarios. In the next step, an agent-based simulation model was developed based on these scenarios.

Originality/Value: 

By integrating GMCR and Agent-Based Model (ABM), this study has successfully addressed aspects of strategic conflict, market dynamics, and the gradual learning of participants, which were previously overlooked in most earlier research.