Investigation of Temporal and Spatial Changes in the Occurrence of Frost in Isfahan Province Using the Models of the Sixth Climate Change Report

Extreme climate events and agricultural disasters have increased in the past decades (IPCC, 2012). Frost disaster is one of the extreme events characterized by a short duration of freezing air that is destructive to crop growth and production (Xiao et al., 2018). Every year, early fall and late spring frost, due to the coincidence with the critical stages of plant life, reduces agricultural product yield. Investigation of changes in frost parameters such as the date of the first fall frost (FFF), the date of the last spring frost (LSF), growing season length (GSL), the number of frost days (FD), and the length of the frost period (LF) during the future period, to provide proper planning for planting crops and take the necessary measures to prevent the occurrence of frost with sensitive stages of plant growth is essential)Esmaeili et al., 2011(. This study aims to investigate the temporal and spatial changes of the mentioned frost parameters of the future period (2051-2022) based on three emission scenarios, SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585, compared to the future statistical period in Isfahan province.