Determining the Optimal Cropping Pattern with Emphasis on the Interaction between Risk and Profitability: Farmlands of Dehgolan Plain

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Article Type:
Research/Original Article (دارای رتبه معتبر)
Abstract:

Risk is an undeniable factor in agricultural activities, and its neglect can lead to inefficient resource allocation in the sector. Various theories and mathematical programming models have been developed to assist decision-making in cropping pattern management under risk conditions. This study aimed to determine the optimal cropping pattern for Dehgolan Plain, Iran, using data from 2014 to 2023. A linear programming model was employed to maximize farmers' gross income, and the results were compared with those from a Quadratic Programming Model and the Minimization of Total Absolute Deviation (MOTAD) model, both incorporating risk minimization. The findings revealed that risk factors can significantly influence cropping patterns. Under the highest level of risk, the profit-maximizing cropping pattern included only cucumber, alfalfa, and canola, indicating a preference for higher gross-income crops despite their greater water requirements. However, when risk was incorporated into the model, the cultivated area of wheat and barley increased compared to the risk-neutral scenario. This shift reflects a tendency toward lower water-requirement crops, even at the cost of reduced gross income. These results highlight the necessity of balancing income maximization and risk management for more sustainable cropping pattern.

Language:
Persian
Published:
Journal of Economics and Agricultural Development, Volume:39 Issue: 2, Summer 2025
Pages:
181 to 192
https://www.magiran.com/p2867515  
سامانه نویسندگان
  • Corresponding Author (2)
    Mahmood Haji Rahimi
    Assistant Professor Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, University Of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran
    Haji Rahimi، Mahmood
  • Author (3)
    Hamed Ghaderzadeh
    Associate Professor Agricultural Economics, College of Agriculture, University Of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran
    Ghaderzadeh، Hamed
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