Predicting Skilled Labor Demand and the Evaluation of its Structural Changes

Structural change is a much used concept in various fields including the demand for skilled labor. To shed light on this, the structural change theory should be expanded. This kind of change occurs when some component parts and their specifications disappear or are added or some existing relations get transformed or removed. The question is how to test these changes. Econometrics attempts to examine various structural change within the framework of different models. Two of such changes have been studied in relation to the demand for skilled labor: stochastic, with non-stationary process, and non-stochastic. After a survey of structural change in the demand for skilled labor in each of the economic sub-categories, models were developed and some predictions were done. Here, the cointegration modeling has proved to be useful. After the stationarity test on each time series, we did the cointegration test followed by an estimation of the vectors error correction models. Finally, on the basis of three scenarios about the development of exogonous variables, an anticipation of the size of skilled labor demand for the years 1383 – 1388 was carried out.