Prediction of Dry and Wet Periods by Studying the Relationship between Temperature and Precipitation in Tabriz Region

Precipitation forecasting has been received more attention to manage drought and flooding. Nowadays, different methods have been established which are enabling to predict precipitation seasonally and monthly using statistical models. In this research, precipitation forcasting model is established by using the relationship between temperature and precipitation. It can be concluded that as in Azerbaijan province the factors cause the precipitation is the result of raising orographical system, hence there is a inverse relationship between temperature and precipitation. The results not only prove the inverse relationship in long term but also show a short term relationship between temperature and precipitation. The time series modeling for monthly precipitation anomalies make it possible to predict precipitation of dry and wet periods. The analysis of cross correlation function (CCF) of minimum, maximun and mean temperature with precipitation show a bimonthly prolonged effect between temperature and precipitation. To predict precipitation, statistical model has been established by using temperature of two and one months precedingly and the same month.