Demand Diversion of Air Transit in the Over Flight Sector

The main purpose of this research is to identify air transit potential in the over-flight sector and to estimate the demand diversion from Iran's air corridors to other substitute paths. After determining the study area and its zoning, three special information zones were formed for statistical studies. The collected statistical samples in the databases mainly relate to the time interval of 20th to 27th, of May 2002. The main reason to select the 1-week time interval is the period of repetition of regular flights throughout the world. Eleven different zones have been identified as air transit potential of the country. The results indicate that, despite the shortness of air paths of the country among the identified effective air transit zones, less than 40% of the transit flights have entered these corridors and the remainders are absorbed in parallel paths. Different approaches have been adopted in the analysis of Iran's air transit potentials. In this study, after forming classified crossing tables, the roles of various airlines have been evaluated on the basis of the portion of the evident potentials in the total potential flights. The categorical data according to logarithmic-linear models have also been statistically analyzed in the research and the zero hypotheses of the combined mutual effects have been studied by using these models. The results of fitting these models into classified crossing tables clearly show the effective role of the classified variable of different airlines in the air transit market. In other hand, with applying the one way t-test, different airlines have been categorized, by rate of loosing revenue. The international corridors have also been prioritized in this approach in terms of volume of transit and time distribution of the present demand. In addition, considering the present evaluated difference between the visible potentials in the country's sky and the present potential, including evident and hidden potentials, some strategies have been presented for converting the latent demand to the evident level