Seismic Risk Analysis of Iranian Construction Projects

In this paper, the project earthquake occurrence risk coecient is determined for eachconstruction project that is located in one of Iran's twenty seismic regions. This coecient is allocated, regardless of the current situation of the project, being in the plan or execution phase or even completed. This coecient indicates the possibility of an earthquake occurrence during a project's life time. To nd this coecient, the Gutenberg-Richter linear relationship has been applied, in conjunction with the Poisson distribution. The Gutenberg-Richter linear equation expresses the relationship between the magnitude of an earthquake and the number of occurrences, during a xed time, of that magnitude. To nd the linear relationship for a series of earthquakes with dierent magnitudes occurring in the same seismic region, the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) has been used. Two linear regression assumption violations, which are variance heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation, have been tested on the available data. In the case of nding one or both of these two violations, The Generalized Least Square (GLS) has been applied to produce a better regression line. Moreover, the second order type of the Gutenberg-Richter relationship has also been determined to validate the linear one. In conclusion, by application of the Poisson distribution and by having the design earthquake's magnitude and project life time, the third parameter, which is the design earthquake occurrence risk, can be determined for a given construction project in a specic location in Iran.